Daily Radar
Nov. 21, 2025
Candidates Found:
10
Market Cap Impact: $7.5B | Volume Scan : 22 Analyzed
📈 Market Context
SPY Performance: Up 0.91% on November 24, 2025
Adjusted Thresholds: Large Cap: 5.0% | Small Cap: 10.0%
Adjustment Logic: Original thresholds applied.
Signals
WALD | Waldencast plc Class A Ordinary Share
Price Drop: -10.06% | Market Cap Loss: ~$42M | Viability Score: High
WALD fell 10.1% on Nov 24, 2025 after the company issued Q2 results showing a $152M goodwill write-down and cut its 2025 margin outlook. Because the impairment and guidance reset undermine prior valuations and growth claims, which are already under SEC scrutiny, the drop is a plausible corrective disclosure, potentially supporting a Rule 10b-5 claim.
Revelation Events
Impairment & Guidance Cut: The company filed a press release detailing a $152M Obagi goodwill impairment and a $20M Milk Makeup impairment. Simultaneously, they lowered FY-25 EBITDA margin to "high-single digits" which contradicts earlier rosy projections.
Sales Miss: Q2 net sales ($66.8M) missed LSEG estimates and confirmed the guidance trim, validating the market's negative reaction.
Management Silence: Management elected not to host a Q&A call with investors on the earnings day. This is an unusual move that potentially indicates a fear of further revelation or inability to defend the sudden deterioration.
Loss-Causation Analysis
The 10.1% single-day decline occurred while the S&P 500 rose 1.55%, effectively isolating the losses to WALD's company-specific revelations.
The disclosure of $172M in total impairments and the outlook cut corrected the market's reliance on prior statements that Obagi and Milk Makeup were "high-growth" assets with durable margins.
Analysts immediately tied the price plunge to the impairments and missed sales, establishing a direct causal link.
Scienter Indicators
Pattern of Issues: The company faced a restatement of Obagi financials and an SEC subpoena in March 2024, during which shares also fell.
Executive Turnover: The CFO abruptly exited in January 2024 amid accounting turmoil, suggesting internal knowledge of financial instability.
Magnitude of Write-down: Large 2025 goodwill impairments ($172M total) suggest prior asset values were knowingly overstated.
Potential Misrepresentations & Material Omissions
The investigation identified prior claims regarding asset health that were materially contradicted by the November 24, 2025 revelation
Statement #1: Guidance Confirmation and Expression of Confidence
Date: May 13, 2025
Source: Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release
Quote: "We are confident in our ability to deliver a stronger performance throughout the remainder of the year, beginning in Q2.”
Contradiction: Six months later, the company reported flat revenue growth ("broadly in line with 2024") and slashed EBITDA margin guidance to "high-single digits." The November 24 disclosure of massive impairments ($172M) suggests the "confidence" expressed in May lacked a reasonable basis and ignored internal indicators of declining brand value.
Statement #2: Reassurance of Profitability Resilience
Date: August 18, 2025
Source: H1 2025 Business Update
Quote: "Adjusted EBITDA margins are now anticipated in the low to mid-teens. The relative resilience of profitability highlights the Company's strong operating discipline and ability to manage costs effectively."
Contradiction: Just 98 days later, management cut EBITDA guidance again to "high-single digits" and revealed the massive goodwill write-down. The sudden deterioration contradicts the August claim of "resilience" and "strong operating discipline," indicating that management likely concealed the depth of the structural issues facing the Obagi and Milk Makeup brands.
TWNP | Twin Hospitality Group Inc. Class A Common Stock
Price Drop: -40.00% | Market Cap Loss: ~$136M | Viability Score: High
TWNP crashed 40% on Nov 24, 2025 after an after-hours Form 8-K disclosed that $412M of securitized notes were accelerated and immediately payable, leaving the company unable to pay. This surprise revelation likely corrects prior liquidity assurances and raises the specter of bankruptcy, potentially supporting a Rule 10b-5 claim.
Revelation Events
Debt Acceleration: The company filed an 8-K (Item 2.04) after hours on Friday, Nov 21, stating "Twin Hospitality Receives Acceleration Notice for $412M Securitization Notes." It admitted the company lacks funds to pay, marking the first formal admission of imminent default.
Media Amplification: Panabee coverage on Nov 22, 2025 highlighted the "$423 M Debt Obligation Accelerated" and the lack of funds, ensuring the news reached investors over the weekend.
Market Confirmation: On the same day, TipRanks reiterated the default notices, framing the event as material financial distress immediately before the market opened.
Loss-Causation Analysis
The 8-K filed after Friday's close revealed that the trustee had accelerated $412M in secured debt and that TWNP had "no amounts on hand" to satisfy it. The 40% collapse on Monday, Nov 24, 2025 occurred while the sector ETF (+1.3%) and S&P 500 (+1.5%) rose, effectively isolating the crash to the company's specific default news.
Scienter Indicators
Contradictory Assurances: A July 2024 information statement asserted "sufficient sources of funding" for 12 months, a claim effectively falsified by the November default.
Knowledge of Breach: The acceleration notice references covenant breaches dating back to October 27, implying management knew of the liquidity crisis weeks before the disclosure.
Motive: The highly leveraged structure and recent spin-off suggest a motive to delay bad news to protect financing plans.
Potential Misrepresentations & Material Omissions
The investigation identified prior claims regarding liquidity that were materially contradicted by the November 24 revelation.
Statement #1: Liquidity Sufficiency Claims
Date: July 29, 2025
Source: Form 10 Information Statement
Quote: "We believe we have sufficient sources of funding to meet our business requirements and plans for the next 12 months."
Contradiction: Less than four months later, the company admitted in an 8-K that it had "no amounts on hand" to satisfy accelerated debt. The rapid shift from "sufficient funding" for a year to immediate insolvency suggests the July projection lacked a reasonable basis or omitted known liquidity constraints.
Statement #2: Omission of Default During Earnings Call
Date: November 17, 2025
Source: Company Press Release (regarding Florida Acquisition)
Quote: The company announced it was acquiring 8 franchised locations in Florida for $47 million in cash, touting the deal would "contribute a total of approximately $76 million to $77 million in annual revenue.”
Contradiction: This acquisition was announced on the exact same day the company received the acceleration notice for its $412M debt (as confirmed by the Nov 21 filing). Management touted a $47M cash deployment for "growth" while simultaneously concealing that they had defaulted on their primary debt and had "no amounts on hand" to pay creditors. Promoting a growth narrative while secretly insolvent is a potential indicator of scienter.
Signals #3 to 10: Premium subscribers only
Subscribe to a premium subscription to read the rest.
Become a paying subscriber to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.
Upgrade